FUD in Markets for Silver Bullets
This weeks invited guest blog post is from Chris Swan, who surgically deFUDs a classic infosec metaphor - the silver bullet. Insightful as always, thanks Chris!
Why do we have FUD? Ian Grigg characterises security products and services as a ‘Market for Silver Bullets’ – a market where neither the buyer nor the seller has sufficient information to determine whether something is effective or provides value for money. That is why we have so much Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD).
-
The Market for Goods,
as described by Information
and by PartyBuyer
KnowsBuyer
LacksSeller
KnowsEfficient Goods
Lemons
(used cars)Seller
LacksLimes
(Insurance)Silver Bullets
(Security)
Ian’s 3rd hypothesis is ‘In the market for silver bullets, neither buyers nor sellers of the good are informed sufficiently to make rational decisions’. From which we might infer that it’s in the interest of sellers to push buyers towards making irrational decisions – decisions based on emotion rather than logic and data. Fear is an emotional response to threats and danger, related to the specific behaviours of escape and avoidance, whereas anxiety is the result of threats which are perceived to be uncontrollable or unavoidable. Fear sells – the product/service that provides the means of escape and avoidance. Anxiety is not profitable – there’s no money in things that are uncontrollable or unavoidable. The point of FUD is to make us fearful rather than anxious.
So where does the uncertainty and doubt come in? That’s in the lack of information in the hands (or heads) of the buyer and seller. The seller doesn’t want to reveal that he can’t be sure that his product or service is effective, so instead he must concentrate his efforts on the fact that the buyer also lacks information about what’s going on.
How do we get past FUD? This can only be done by having better information in the hands of both buyers and sellers, which is tricky as we’re dealing with a 3rd party – the attacker – who doesn’t want to join the party. The information that both the buyer and the seller of security are most lacking is in the head of the attacker.
All is not lost however – as speakers at security conferences keep boring on about – eCrime is now a business rather than a hobby, and businesses need transaction venues. eCrime transaction venues are by their very nature underground, or on ‘dark nets’, but they are imperfect in keeping law enforcement and security researchers out. We can therefore see what the attackers are up to, and determine a measured and economically viable response. This is what Ross Anderson was driving at with his original paper on the Economics of Information Security, and this is also why I think the Workshop on the Economics of Information Security (WEIS) is probably the best security conference going. Get along, get deFUDed, and dodge some silver bullets.
